KEY TAKEAWAYS
A poker outs chart is a reference table that converts a number of outs into a chance of hitting. Find the row for 9 outs and it shows 19.1% on the next card from the flop and 35.0% by the river. Find 15 outs and the same columns read 31.9% and 54.1%. Nothing in the chart is guessed, because each value comes from counting unseen cards, and the full chart below can be rebuilt with a calculator.
This article presents a chart for 1 to 20 outs, explains each column and the assumptions behind it, shows how to read it with a worked example, and adds a short chart of common draws. A chart is only a record of arithmetic, so the goal is to know what it assumes. Readers who need the basic definition can start with what outs are in poker.
What a Poker Outs Chart Shows
An outs chart answers a narrow question: if this many cards help, how often does one arrive? The rows are outs, from 1 to 20. The columns are probabilities for a specific situation, such as the next card from the flop or the next card from the turn. The reader finds the row and reads across.
The chart replaces repeated arithmetic. A player who knows the count of outs can look up the result instead of recalculating it, which is how a table of any kind works as a reference. The chart is a lookup, not a decision. It says nothing about whether a hand should be played, only how likely a card is.
Because it is a lookup, a chart is only valid for the conditions it was built under. Those conditions are listed in the sections that follow, and they matter more than any single value in the table.
How the Numbers Are Built
Every column starts from a count of unseen cards. The unseen count is 52 minus the cards the reader can see. With two hole cards and three board cards visible, 47 cards are unseen. After the turn, with four board cards visible, 46 are unseen. The opponent’s hole cards are unknown, so they stay in the unseen count.
The columns
The first probability column is outs ÷ 47, the chance of hitting on the next card from the flop. The second is outs ÷ 46, the chance of hitting on the river after a turn that missed. The both-cards column is exact, 1 − [(47 − outs) ÷ 47] × [(46 − outs) ÷ 46]. For 9 outs, that is 1 − (38 ÷ 47) × (37 ÷ 46) = 35.0%.
The last column converts the river chance into a price. A call is break-even when the chance of hitting equals bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet), where the pot is the pot before the bet. Solving for the bet gives bet = pot × p ÷ (1 − 2p), which the chart shows as a fraction of the pot. For 8 outs on the turn, p = 8 ÷ 46 = 17.4%, so the fraction is 0.174 ÷ (1 − 0.348) = 0.27.
The Chart: 1 to 20 Outs
The chart below uses the formulas above. All percentages are rounded to one decimal, and the last column is rounded to two. Read the first probability column from the flop, the second from the turn, and the third when two cards are still to come.
| Outs | Next card from the flop (÷ 47) | Next card from the turn (÷ 46) | Both cards, flop to river (exact) | Break-even bet, one card (fraction of pot) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 0.02 |
| 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 0.05 |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 0.07 |
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 0.11 |
| 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 0.14 |
| 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% | 0.18 |
| 7 | 14.9% | 15.2% | 27.8% | 0.22 |
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% | 0.27 |
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% | 0.32 |
| 10 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 38.4% | 0.38 |
| 11 | 23.4% | 23.9% | 41.7% | 0.46 |
| 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% | 0.55 |
| 13 | 27.7% | 28.3% | 48.1% | 0.65 |
| 14 | 29.8% | 30.4% | 51.2% | 0.78 |
| 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% | 0.94 |
| 16 | 34.0% | 34.8% | 57.0% | 1.14 |
| 17 | 36.2% | 37.0% | 59.8% | 1.42 |
| 18 | 38.3% | 39.1% | 62.4% | 1.80 |
| 19 | 40.4% | 41.3% | 65.0% | 2.38 |
| 20 | 42.6% | 43.5% | 67.5% | 3.33 |
The rule of 4 estimate for the both-cards column is outs × 4, which gives 36% for 9 outs against 35.0% exact and 60% for 15 outs against 54.1% exact. The estimate drifts upward as the count grows, a pattern covered in the article on the rule of 2 and 4. Rows above 20 outs are left out because such counts are rare.
Worked Example: Reading One Row
Suppose a player has A♠ J♠ and the flop is K♠ 8♠ 3♦. Four spades are visible, so 13 − 4 = 9 spades remain. The player has 9 outs, and 47 cards are unseen. Row 9 of the chart gives 19.1% for the next card and 35.0% by the river.
Now the turn is the 4♣, a blank, so the draw still needs one card. The player moves to the second probability column: 9 ÷ 46 = 19.6%. The pot is 100, and the break-even bet column for 9 outs reads 0.32, so a bet of about 32 chips is the largest that the 19.6% chance covers on its own. A bet of 50 would need 50 ÷ (100 + 100) = 25.0% equity, which is more than 19.6%.
The chart supplied three answers from one row, each for a different question. The choice between them depends on how many cards are still to come and on whether another bet must be paid, a trade-off explained in the guide to how to calculate pot odds.
A Shortcut Chart for Common Draws
Most hands do not need a full 20-row lookup, because a few draws come up constantly. The table gives their usual out counts and the both-cards chance from the main chart.
| Draw | Typical outs | Both cards (from the chart) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.5% | One rank completes the straight |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.1% | Counts only if pairing an overcard wins |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.5% | Two ranks complete the straight |
| Flush draw | 9 | 35.0% | 13 suited cards minus 4 visible |
| Flush draw plus gutshot | 12 | 45.0% | 9 + 4 − 1 shared card |
| Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.1% | 9 + 8 − 2 shared cards |
The typical counts assume the standard overlaps. A different board can change the shared cards, so the arithmetic should be checked each time rather than copied from the table.
What the Chart Assumes and Where It Misleads
Every out is treated as clean. A chart cannot tell that one of the cards also helps an opponent, which is the topic of dirty outs in poker. If two of 9 outs are dirty, the correct row is 7, not 9, and the both-cards chance is 27.8% instead of 35.0%.
Only the reader’s own cards are removed. The chart cannot account for a card the opponent holds, so it describes the chance of a card appearing, not the chance of winning. It also cannot show how often a hit hand wins.
The both-cards column assumes both cards are seen. If another bet must be paid before the river, the one-card columns are the relevant ones.
Charts disagree because of rounding, an unseen count of 47 used for both streets, or the rule of 2 and 4 used in place of exact values. A difference of a point or two is normally one of these, not an error. For a tool that produces the same numbers on request, see the article on the poker outs calculator.
Related Concepts and the Next Step
A chart is a reference, not a rule. It pairs naturally with the pot odds chart for bet size and equity needed, which runs the same relationship from the opposite direction. Probability describes the long run, and poker involves real financial risk, so no figure in any chart guarantees a result.
Frequently Asked Questions
