KEY TAKEAWAYS
An out is any unseen card that would improve your hand into one likely to win. If you hold four hearts after the flop, each of the nine remaining hearts is an out. Count the outs, divide by the unseen cards, and the result is your chance of improving: with 9 outs, that is 19.1% on the next card and 35.0% across the turn and river together.
Outs are the first step in almost every poker calculation. They turn a vague feeling of “I might hit” into a number that can be checked. The count itself is simple, but it is easy to get wrong, usually by counting a card that is already visible, counting the same card twice, or counting a card that helps an opponent more than it helps you.
This guide explains what outs are, shows a four-step method for counting them, works through a full example with exact arithmetic, and lists the outs for the most common draws. It stops at the probability of hitting. Comparing that probability with the cost of a bet is a separate calculation.
What Are Outs in Poker, and What Are They Not?
An out is a card still in the deck that completes a draw or otherwise improves your hand to a probable winner. A draw is a hand that is not yet made but could become one: four cards to a flush, four cards to a straight, or a pair that needs a third card to make a set.
The key word is unseen. From your point of view, the cards that count are the ones you cannot see: everything except your two hole cards and the board. On the flop you can see 5 cards, so 47 cards are unseen. On the turn you can see 6, so 46 are unseen. Opponents’ hole cards are unseen too, which means some outs may actually sit in another player’s hand, but you cannot know that, so you count them anyway.
It is also useful to separate clean outs from tainted outs. A clean out improves you to the best hand regardless of what the opponent holds. A tainted out improves you but may also improve the opponent to something better, such as a flush card that pairs the board and could give a rival a full house. Tainted outs are discounted, which this guide covers below.
How to Count Outs in Four Steps
Counting outs follows the same four steps for every draw. The method is mechanical, which is what makes it reliable.
Step 1: Name the hand you are drawing to
Be specific. “A flush” or “a straight” is a target; “something better” is not. The target determines which cards qualify and which do not.
Step 2: List every card that completes it
For a flush draw, a suit has 13 cards, so the list starts at 13. For an open-ended straight draw, there are two ranks that complete the straight, with 4 cards of each rank, so the list starts at 8. For a gutshot straight draw, only one rank completes it, so the list starts at 4.
Step 3: Subtract the cards you can already see
A flush draw starts at 13 hearts, but you can already see 4 of them (two in your hand, two on the board), so 13 − 4 = 9 outs. Straight outs usually need no subtraction, because the ranks that complete the straight are not among the cards you hold or see.
Step 4: Remove overlaps and discount tainted outs
If one card completes two draws, it is still one card and counts once. If a card helps an opponent more, reduce the count. Only then convert outs into a probability.
From outs to a percentage
With one card to come, the probability is outs ÷ unseen cards. With two cards to come from the flop, the exact formula is 1 − [(47 − outs) ÷ 47] × [(46 − outs) ÷ 46]. The second form calculates the chance of missing twice and subtracts it from 1.
Worked Example: Counting Outs for a Flush Draw
Suppose you hold A♥ K♥ and the flop comes Q♥ 7♥ 2♠. You are drawing to a heart flush. The deck has 13 hearts; you can see A♥, K♥, Q♥ and 7♥, so 13 − 4 = 9 outs. Unseen cards: 52 − 2 − 3 = 47.
Next card: 9 ÷ 47 = 19.1%. By the river, the chance of missing both cards is (38 ÷ 47) × (37 ÷ 46) = 1,406 ÷ 2,162 = 65.0%, so the chance of hitting at least once is 1 − 0.650 = 35.0%. As odds against on the next card, that is 38 to 9, about 4.2 to 1.
Now a combination draw. Suppose you hold 9♠ 8♠ and the flop is 7♠ 6♥ 2♠. You have four spades and an open-ended straight draw (a 10 or a 5 completes it). Spades give 13 − 4 = 9 outs. Tens and fives give 8 cards, but 10♠ and 5♠ are already counted among the spades, leaving 3 + 3 = 6. The total is 9 + 6 = 15 outs, not 17. Missing twice: (32 ÷ 47) × (31 ÷ 46) = 992 ÷ 2,162 = 45.9%, so the draw hits by the river 54.1% of the time.
Common Mistakes When Counting Outs
The most frequent error is double-counting an overlapping card. In the combination example above, adding 9 flush outs to 8 straight outs gives 17, but two cards appear in both lists. A card is either in the deck or not; it cannot be counted twice. The correct total of 15 changes the river probability from an inflated 59.8% to the true 54.1%.
A second mistake is adding the turn and river percentages. With 9 outs, 19.1% + 19.6% = 38.7%, but the true two-card probability is 35.0%. The second percentage does not apply to the same starting point: you can only hit on the river if you missed on the turn, so the calculation has to account for the misses.
A third is using 52 as the unseen total. The deck is not 52 cards from your point of view; you know 5 of them on the flop. Using 52 turns 9/47 = 19.1% into 9/52 = 17.3%, which understates the chance. Finally, treating every out as clean can overstate the real chance of winning, since some cards that complete a draw also help the opponent.
Outs for Common Draws and What the Numbers Mean
Memorizing the outs for the most common draws makes counting fast. The table gives the exact probabilities, calculated from the formulas above on a flop with 47 unseen cards.
| Draw | Outs | Next card | Flop to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair to a set | 2 | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| One overcard | 3 | 6.4% | 12.5% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 8.5% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 12.8% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.0% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.1% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw | 15 | 31.9% | 54.1% |
Outs counting is also where mental shortcuts appear. Multiplying outs by 4 on the flop, or by 2 on the turn, gives a quick estimate. For 9 outs, 9 × 4 = 36%, close to the exact 35.0%. The shortcut is an approximation and grows less accurate with more outs: 15 × 4 = 60%, against the exact 54.1%.
A draw that hits 35% of the time still misses 65% of the time. Outs describe the long run across many similar situations, not what the next card will be. Poker involves real financial risk, and no count of outs removes the short-term luck in the cards.
Where Outs Lead Next
Counting outs is the foundation for the next calculations: converting outs into equity across the remaining streets, comparing that equity with the price of a call, and checking how accurate quick shortcuts are against the exact numbers. Each builds directly on the count of outs and the 47-card and 46-card unseen totals used above.
